It was eight weeks in the past that the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. As Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six games, are somehow a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough question to resolve. History, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have accumulated.
According to the data, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look curiously susceptible – but currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents registered more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
